Markets last week |
Markets last week were treated to a spike in US inflation and, somewhat counter-intuitively, a No fundamental changes in economic data were registered. The reopening of the UK economy was visible At the end of the week, US Treasury yields fell by 10 basis points (bps) with Gilts down less, by 8 |
The week ahead |
Wednesday: UK CPI (consumer price index), RPI (retail price index) and PPI (producer price Our thoughts: Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Andy Haldane is worried Wednesday: China monthly data (retail sales, industrial production, fixed assets ex rural, Our thoughts: the Chinese economy may not be flavour of the day for financial markets, but it Wednesday: conference by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on monetary policy rates, asset purchases Our thoughts: there is no event more awaited next week than the Fed’s meeting. With |
Markets for the week |
|
Sources: FTSE, Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management |
Central banks/fiscal policy |
Inflation concerns at the Bank of England The European Central Bank (ECB) gave its regular conference on Thursday. The ECB left rates and asset The ECB’s 2023 inflation forecast was unchanged, at 1.4%, far below its inflation target. Prominent MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) member Andy Haldane wrote an article about inflation’s “There are plenty of reasons why [that] benign inflation scenario may not materialise. The momentum in |
United States |
CPI soars and yet inflation expectations drop Surveys: the NFIB index of activity and sentiment at small businesses eased to 99.6 from 99.8. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose from 82.9 to 86.4, above estimates, with Inflation: the May CPI (consumer price index) rose 0.6%, higher than expected. The year-on-year About 52% of the monthly increase came from six components, all reopening-related – used cars, rental The main drivers of the rise were used car prices (up 7.3%, following 10.0% in April), airline fares While core inflation rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis, 3-month and 6-month annualised rates rose Looking over a longer time frame, CPI over the last 24 months was 2.62% annualised and core CPI was Employment: initial jobless claims eased to 376K from 385K, but continuing claims fell much |
United Kingdom |
Services bounced back sharply in April Retail sales: the BRC retail sales monitor rose 28.4% year-on-year in May, down from 51.1% in Housing: UK house prices grew at their strongest pace in almost 7 years, as per the Halifax The May RICS survey shows a net balance of surveyors reporting that house prices have risen over the Economic growth: April GDP was almost in line with estimates at 2.3%, up from 2.1% in March. Trade: the visible trade balance was a smidge better, with a £10.9bn deficit vs. £11.7bn. The |
Europe |
Have expectations reached a high? Surveys: the Sentix investor sentiment index in the eurozone rose to 28.1 in June, from 21.0. Industry: industrial production in Germany fell by 1.0% in April, below estimates, due to a |
China/India/Japan/Asia |
Japanese machine tools and Chinese PPI show that global manufacturing is still hot China: foreign exchange reserves in May rose from US$3,198bn to US$3,222bn. The PPI (producer Money supply growth remained buoyant, with M0 rising from 5.3% to 5.6%, M1 at 6.1% from 6.2% and M2 Japan: the Leading Index CI edged up from 102.4 to 103.0 and the Coincident Index moved Machine tools orders for May year-on-year increased to 140.7%, up from 120.8% the previous month. |
Oil/Commodities/Emerging Markets |
Oil prices recovered during the week, whereas copper prices were more subdued. No particular data or |
About Author
How can we help you?
If you would like to speak to one of our advisers, please get in touch today.